Sometimes a card might
be great in theory, seem okay in practice but when I apply the math to it, I
realize what a terrible card choice it is. Take my decision not to use Genex
Ally Birdman in Geargia (something I talked about in my YCS Ausitin article),
for example. The synergy with Armor, Gearframe and triple Call of the Haunted
gave me hope that the card, often a poor draw in already worrisome hands, might
actually be playable now. I tested it out. The results were alright but I
noticed that I was drawing multiple tuners quite often—something you generally
don’t want. That’s when I decided to do the math. I found out that adding a 4th
tuner doubled my odds of drawing multiples in my opening hand. At a difference
of 5% or 1-in-20 games, I couldn’t justify the marginal benefits from the card.
Especially since, the negative effect on drawing into multiple tuners (after
turn 1) was even more disheartening.
After my Top 16 finish
in Austin, there was a resurgence of Karakrui Geargia—a deck otherwise left for
dead. But I noticed Birdman in almost all of the knock-offs. Why?
I couldn’t wrap my
head around it. Perhaps it’s my fault. Maybe I should have spent more time
detailing my card choices—Birdman, especially—explaining why they shouldn’t be
run. If you’re still not convinced, let me give it another attempt:
Adding just one Birdman doubles your
odds of drawing multiple tuners. But why is this bad? Remember that you only
have six cards to work with in your opening hand. If you have multiple tuners
then you only have four cards left. Better hope one of those is Armor. Problem
is, you only have a 65% chance of opening Armor or Arsenal! You won’t open with
either of them every 1-in-3 games.
Multiple tuners and no Armor? Ouch. Even if you do have Armor, one of a
couple things needs to happen:
(a)
You need
Armor, Birdman and Accel. Odds?
Armor or Arsenal 65%
Birdman 15%
Accel 39%
Odds 04%
(b)
You need
to be able to protect Armor so that next turn you can flip summon him and
attempt to use your tuner
Scenario (a) is a 1-in-25 combo—that
can only be pulled off safely if you’re going first. Is it worth running a card
that with ruin your hands once in every 20 games? Of course not. Now consider
scenario (b). How are you going to keep Armor on the field if you only have
three other cards in hand? It’s possible, but it’s going to be an uphill battle
because the tuners you have in hand aren’t doing anything to help the cause.
“But he’s searchable!”, proponents
of the Genex Ally say. Birdman’s a nice option to have, but remember you can
search for Strategist or Watchdog just as easily and the only value lost is
having to use your normal summon to make a field of GGX, Burei, Bureido and
Watchdog. Who cares? That’s over 8,000 already.
I’ll be honest, it
irks me that my build brought Geargias back yet people just ignore some of the
fundamental attributes that enabled me to achieve a Top 16 finish in Austin.
Call of the Haunted played a major role, but somebody can’t just throw a couple
copies into an average Geargia deck, along with other subpar choices, and
expect the deck to perform at its best. To be clear, I’m not saying to just
copy my build without evaluating card choices and how your own playstyle
interacts with the cards, but I am
saying there are key concepts people shouldn’t just be ignoring if they want to
maximize their success with Gears (or really any deck).
I wouldn’t want my
build to be anymore than a template for others to make their Geargia decklist.
But when I see a Geargia thread in the forum’s Deck Discussion or make the cut
at a regional, I’m eager to see what tech others have come up with—I am
consistently disappointed to see that they are generally just the recipients of
good fortunate in spite of their poor card choices.
It’s as if “personal
preference” outweighs actual reasoning and performance.
Personal preference is
something that’s thrown around all-to-often but there should always a reason.
Recently a couple of cards choices in one of my friend’s deck were questioned.
My friend gave some half-hearted explanation but his use of “player preference”
made my heart sink. Despite being a good duelist, he didn’t have a sufficient
grasp of why his card choices were
justified. I thought this was especially surprising because, to me, the
reasoning was clear! Player preference is just a cop out. Even if it comes from
a good player. Either there’s reasoning, and you just need spend some more tie
being able to understand it, or there’s not.
I just want to
encourage everybody to really think through their card choices. Have sound
reasoning for each of your cards. If you can’t provide any, or it doesn’t stand
up to the counter-arguments, then you probably shouldn’t be running it.
That goes especially for forum goers. All too
often I see people discussing card choices without actually detailing their
reasoning and, like sheep, people follow. Rather, start making decisions for
yourself and if you have a disagreement, you’ll both be better on in the long-run
by actually discussing the merits of each card rather than dismissing it as
preference. (This is where quantifiable value comes in handy, since it can
break what might otherwise be a standstill.) Make sure you understand all of
the most important factors and how they weight against your alternatives.
·
Pros and
cons
·
Performance
in testing
·
Quantifiable
value
Generally, you’ll
theory-oh a list of pros and cons before even testing. Then, through testing,
you’ll come across scenarios you hadn’t thought about that add to your list.
Each of these items can be quantified in one way or another.
Build your deck with
purpose. Good luck!
Samuel
Samuel
man i never thought of using math to help craft my deck. i normally just did tons of sample hands and used that as ways to test for consistency (if i drew too many tuners i knew what to cut etc.) but your way is a lot better for many reasons. great article man
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